Is There Hope for China-U.S. Outer Space Relations?

Trump is heading back to the White House, will space relations between the two superpowers change?

Nov 06, 2024

This article is one of China Space Updates’ few op-eds, reflecting the views and predictions of the author.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and U.S. President Donald Trump (right) at the Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, in April 2017.

Donald Trump has been re-elected as President of the United States of America, making him the second president to serve two non-consecutive terms. Back in his first term, Trump had what has been described as a flip-flop approach to China. So what does the future hold for the two nations in the heavens above?

Some History

For as long as I can remember, the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America have had a tense but mutually beneficial relationship, China needed capital investment while U.S. capitalists wanted a cheap, highly skill concentrated, manufacturing hub.

Before 2017, U.S. administrations kept building on the two countries economic partnerships while criticizing internal policies relating to labor and human rights. China, under the guidance of the Communist Party, has also kept strengthening the economic relationship while largely staying out of internal U.S. affairs.

U.S.-China relations took a turn for the more unpredictable in 2017 when Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th President. As president, Trump began the New Cold War with his first National Defence Strategy report stating:

“China and Russia want to shape a world antithetical to US values and interests. China seeks to displace the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, expand the reaches of its state-driven economic model and reorder the region in its favour.”

While beginning the cold conflict, Trump also went after more transactional agreements with China. Operating under the belief of ‘America First’, the 45th president forewent traditional agreements with America’s usual allies for deals with China with little concessions on internal Chinese policy, something the U.S. would have normally pursued too. Mere months into his first term, Trump also stated that he could see U.S.-China relations getting better, saying:

“I can see that, I think long-term, we are going to have a very, very great relationship and I look very much forward to it.”

Toward the end of Trump’s first term, the COVID-19 pandemic quickly took the world by storm, of which almost all governments were woefully unprepared. The U.S. had an abysmal response to the pandemic, causing the then-president to turn to racist conspiracy theories as deflection from bad policy. Both the Chinese people and government didn’t take kindly to this, souring relations between the two superpowers until Trump was replaced with Joe Biden.

China is in Space to Stay

Since China launched its first taikonaut, Yang Liwei (杨利伟), into orbit back in 2003, the country has advanced unfathomably fast with space technology. In the little over twenty years since Yang’s flight, the country has gone on to fly a total of twenty-four taikonauts, launched three space stations, performed six lunar missions, and landed a rover on Mars, along with launching countless satellites to help with development and modernization.

Since June of 2022, the Tiangong Space Station has been permanently crewed in low Earth orbit. At least three taikonauts are always onboard the station performing experiments and maintaining systems. China is also the only nation currently flying and operating its own station, having been barred from joining the International Space Station. In the coming decade, China will also have a sustained human presence on the Moon.

Beginning in 2000, China has been operating its alternative to GPS, known as BeiDou. BeiDou has had sixty satellites launched to a variety of orbits to provide positioning data within China and worldwide. The BeiDou network has also allowed Chinese companies to develop satellite-assisted technologies like self-driving vehicles and autonomous shipping ports.

Like any modern space power, China is launching its own satellite mega-constellations in low Earth orbit. In the coming years almost forty-eight thousand satellites will be launched, providing connectivity to underserved areas worldwide. These mega-constellations will also be a useful diplomatic tool as an alternative to Starlink.

Despite still relying on decades-old expendable hypergolic launch vehicles as the backbone of launch capability, China is also on the precipice of fielding several reusable rockets. With these many launch vehicles, China may overtake the U.S. in the number of operational reusable rockets as few companies are close to fielding a reusable rocket.

America is Faltering

So far this millennium, America’s space program has not been doing well or met any lunar deadlines. Two programs were set up to send an American back to the Moon, Constellation (2004-2010) and Artemis (2017-Present). So far one lunar mission has occurred, sending an Orion spacecraft around the Moon in November 2022, and exposing many problems with the capsule. Due to problems found on this mission, the first crewed lunar mission since 1972 is expected to be delayed to 2026 with the first steps on the surface by an American now expected around 2028. Putting additional stress on Artemis, one of NASA’s spacesuit providers, Collins Aerospace, walked from the contract, removing desired dissimilar redundancy.

NASA is also facing challenges with the International Space Station due to failures with Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft. Starliner has flown three times, launching crew just once and never returning with one. Back when NASA handed out its Commercial Crew Program contracts the agency was hoping to buy flights using two spacecraft to have access to dissimilar redundancy for crewed missions to the space station. Boeing is also reportedly looking to leave Starliner, possibly leaving all crewed missions to SpaceX.

Speaking of SpaceX, the company remains utterly dominant in the Western launch market, due to low launch costs enabled by the reuse of Falcon 9’s first-stage. Falcon 9 is also the most launched rocket so far this year, being equal to all of the others combined. Many of these launches are for Starlink however. This dominance has also led to concerns and claims of SpaceX being anti-competitive and a monopoly. Concerns have also been raised about quality control at SpaceX after two second-stage failures and the loss of a booster during landing.

Why, and What, to Cooperate On?

So with China rising and the U.S. faltering, what should the two space powers cooperate on?

The most obvious is the exploration of the Moon. With the China-led International Lunar Research Station, plans are already underway to conduct long-term science on the surface. NASA is also already assembling hardware for a lunar space station called ‘Gateway’.

In support of both nation’s lunar programs, SpaceX is developing a lunar lander version of its Starship launch vehicle while China is developing a lunar communications and positioning network. SpaceX’s lander will allow for massive amounts of cargo to be delivered in a single trip, accelerating activity on the Moon. China’s lunar communications and positioning network will be critical for keeping astronauts in contact with mission controllers along with accurately positioning surface vehicles.

With these facilities and projects, humanity would have a strong starting point to properly explore our closest celestial neighbor, possibly laying the foundations for long-term habitation.

For long-term survival of humanity, another key possible area of cooperation is space-based solar power. America is the largest per capita contributor to climate change while China is the largest single nation contributor to climate change. Space-based solar power is already part of China’s plan for carbon neutrality by 2060, with research already underway along with a demonstration mission expected in the coming years. Some American start-ups are also researching the possibility of beaming solar power between satellites. Combining the U.S.’ large up-mass capability with Starship, once operational, and China’s existing progress with the large high-tech manufacturing capability would allow for a rapid transition away from greenhouse gas emitting power sources.

There will also be space stations in low Earth orbit where both nations can perform symbolic crew swaps, be it an astronaut boarding Tiangong or a taikonaut heading to a NASA-funded commercial space station.

Is it Likely?

Sadly the answer is no, at least until U.S.-China cooperation preventing legislation is still in place in America. It remains unclear how Trump will approach China during his second term. China is hoping to have continued peaceful coexistence with the U.S., with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China stating:

“We will continue to approach and handle China-US relations based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation,” — “We respect the choice of the American people”